Baby Formula Shortage Highlights US Racial Disparities

Capri Isidoro broke down in tears in the office of a lactation consultant.

The mother of two had been struggling to breastfeed her 1-month-old daughter ever since she was born, when the hospital gave the baby formula first without consulting her on her desire to breastfeed.

Now, with massive safety recall and supply disruptions causing formula shortages across the United States, she also can’t find the specific formula that helps with her baby’s gas pains.

“It is so sad. It shouldn’t be like this,” said Isidoro, who lives in the Baltimore suburb of Ellicott City. “We need formula for our kid, and where is this formula going to come from?”

As parents across the United States struggle to find formula to feed their children, the pain is particularly acute among Black and Hispanic women. Black women have historically faced obstacles to breastfeeding, including a lack of lactation support in the hospital, more pressure to formula feed and cultural roadblocks. It’s one of many inequalities for Black mothers : They are far more likely to die from pregnancy complications, and less likely to have their concerns about pain taken seriously by doctors.

Low-income families buy the majority of formula in the U.S., and face a particular struggle: Experts fear small neighborhood grocery stores that serve these vulnerable populations are not replenishing as much as larger retail stores, leaving some of these families without the resources or means to hunt for formula.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 20% of Black women and 23% of Hispanic women exclusively breastfeed through six months, compared to 29% of white women. The overall rate stands at 26%. Hospitals that encourage breastfeeding and overall lactation support are less prevalent in Black neighborhoods, according to the CDC.

The Association of Women’s Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses also says Hispanic and Black women classified as low-wage workers have less access to lactation support in their workplaces.

The racial disparities reach far back in America’s history. The demands of slave labor prevented mothers from nursing their children, and slave owners separated mothers from their own babies to have them serve as wet nurses, breastfeeding other women’s children.

In the 1950s, racially targeted commercials falsely advertised formula as a superior source of nutrition for infants. And studies continue to show that the babies of Black mothers are more likely to be introduced to formula in the hospital than the babies of white mothers, which happened to Isidoro after her emergency cesarean section.

Physicians say introducing formula means the baby will require fewer feedings from the mother, decreasing the milk supply as the breast is not stimulated enough to produce.

Andrea Freeman, author of the book “Skimmed: Breastfeeding, Race and Injustice,” said these mothers still aren’t getting the support they need when it comes to having the choice of whether to breastfeed or use formula. They also may have jobs that do not accommodate the time and space needed for breastfeeding or pumping milk, Freeman said.

“Nobody’s taking responsibility for the fact that they’ve steered families of color toward formula for so many years and made people rely on it and taken away choice. And then when it falls apart, there’s not really any recognition or accountability,” Freeman said.

Breastfeeding practices are often influenced by previous generations, with some studies suggesting better outcomes for mothers who were breastfed when they were babies.

Kate Bauer, an associate professor of nutritional sciences at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, said she began hearing back in February about Black and Latino families in Detroit and Grand Rapids feeling stuck after finding smaller grocery stores running out of formula.

Some were told to go to the local office of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, better known as WIC, the federal program that supports low-income expectant and new mothers. Between 50% and 65% of the formula in the U.S. is bought through the program.

“Going to the WIC office is like a full day’s errand for some moms,” Bauer said.

She fears mothers are getting desperate enough to try foods that are not recommended for babies under 6 months.

Yury Navas, a Salvadoran immigrant who works at a restaurant and lives in Laurel, Maryland, says she was not able to produce enough breast milk and struggled to find the right formula for her nearly 3-month-old baby Jose Ismael, after others caused vomiting, diarrhea and discomfort.

One time, they drove half an hour to a store where workers told them they had the type she needed, but it was gone when they got there. Her husband goes out every night to search pharmacies around midnight.

“It’s so hard to find this type,” she said, adding they sometimes have run out before they can secure more formula. “The baby will cry and cry, so we give him rice water.”

On a recent day, she was down to her last container and called an advocacy group that had told her it would try to get her some at an appointment in five days. But the group could not guarantee anything.

Some mothers have turned to social media and even befriended other locals to cast a wider net during shopping trips.

In Miami, Denise Castro, who owns a construction company, started a virtual group to support new moms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now it’s helping moms get the formula they need as they go back to work. One of them is a Hispanic teacher whose job leaves her with little flexibility to care for her 2-month-old infant, who has been sensitive to a lot of formula brands.

“Most of the moms we have been helping are Black and Latinas,” Castro said. “These moms really don’t have the time to visit three to four places in their lunch hour.”

Lisette Fernandez, a 34-year-old Cuban American first-time mother of twins, has relied on friends and family to find the liquid 2-ounce bottles she needs for her boy and girl. Earlier this week, her father went to four different pharmacies before he was able to get her some boxes with the tiny bottles. They run out quickly as the babies grow.

Fernandez said she wasn’t able to initiate breastfeeding, trying with an electric pump but saying she produced very little. Her mother, who arrived in Miami from Cuba as a 7-year-old girl, had chosen not to breastfeed her children, saying she did not want to, and taken medication to suppress lactation.

Some studies have attributed changes in breastfeeding behavior among Hispanics to assimilation, saying Latina immigrants perceive formula feeding as an American practice.

“Over the last three to six weeks it has been insane,” Fernandez said. “I am used to everything that COVID has brought. But worrying about my children not having milk? I did not see that coming.”

Source: Voice of America

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Wins Tom Cruise 1st $100 Million Opening

Forget breaking the sound barrier: Tom Cruise just soared past a major career milestone.

The 59-year-old superstar just got his first $100 million opening weekend with “Top Gun: Maverick.” In its first three days in North American theaters, the long-in-the-works sequel earned an estimated $124 million in ticket sales, Paramount Pictures said Sunday. Including international showings — its worldwide total is $248 million.

It’s a supersonic start for a film that still has the wide-open skies of Memorial Day itself to rake in even more cash. According to projections and estimates, by Monday’s close, “Top Gun: Maverick” will likely have over $150 million.

“These results are ridiculously, over-the-top fantastic,” said Chris Aronson, Paramount’s president of domestic distribution. “I’m happy for everyone. I’m happy for the company, for Tom, for the filmmakers.”

Though undeniably one of the biggest stars in the world — perhaps even “the last movie star,” according to various headlines — Cruise is not known for massive blockbuster openings.

Before “Maverick,” his biggest domestic debut was in 2005, with Steven Spielberg’s “War of the Worlds,” which opened to $64 million. After that it was “Mission: Impossible — Fallout” with $61 million in 2018. It’s not that his films don’t make money in the long run: They just aren’t enormously frontloaded.

“Top Gun: Maverick” had an extremely long journey to get to the theaters. The sequel to the late Tony Scott’s “Top Gun,” which was released in 1986, was originally slated to open in the summer of 2020. Its marketing campaign technically started back in July 2019. The pandemic got in the way of those plans, however, and it was delayed several times. Directed by Joseph Kosinski, produced by Jerry Bruckheimer and co-produced and co-financed by Skydance, the sequel reportedly cost $152 million to make.

But even as the months, and years, went by and many other companies chose to compromise on hybrid releases, Cruise and Paramount didn’t waver on their desire to have a major theatrical release. A streaming debut was simply not an option.

“That was never going to happen,” Cruise said in Cannes.

And it is major, with 4,735 North American theaters (a record) showing “Top Gun: Maverick.” It also opened in 23,600 locations in 62 international markets.

“This is one of the longest runways for a marketing campaign for any film ever. And it only served to create more excitement around the movie,” said Paul Dergarabedian, the senior media analyst for Comscore. “This movie literally waited for the movie theater to come back.”

The buildup has been just as flashy, with fighter-jet-adorned premieres on an aircraft carrier in San Diego and at the Cannes Film Festival, where Cruise was also given an honorary Palme d’Or, and a royal premiere in London attended by Prince William and his wife Kate.

“The feeling you get when you watch this film with an audience, it’s pretty special,” Aronson said. “The first big screening we had, there was spontaneous applause during the movie.”

Reviews have been stellar, too, with the film notching a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences, who were 58% male, gave it an A+ CinemaScore, according to exit polls.

The new film has Cruise reprising the role of Maverick, who returns to the elite aviation training program to train the next generation of flyers, including Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Monica Barbaro, Greg Tarzan Davis, Danny Ramirez, Lewis Pullman and Jay Ellis. Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm and Val Kilmer, reprising his role from the original, also star.

“This solidifies the notion that the movie theater is a singular and a vitally important outlet for people,” Dergarabedian said. “People are looking for a great escape from everything that’s going on in the world right now.”

“Maverick” is now among the top pandemic era openings, still led by “Spider-Man: No Way Home” with $260 million, followed by “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” with $187 million and “The Batman” with $134 million.

Notably, “Top Gun: Maverick” is the only non-superhero movie in the bunch. It also attracted a wide swath of age groups to the theater. An estimated 55% of the audience was over 35.

“Superhero movies aren’t for everybody. This movie is for everyone and that’s what sets it apart,” Aronson said. “The theatrical exhibition business has challenges ahead of it, but this is a shot in the arm for that.”

“The Bob’s Burgers Movie” was the only new release that dared go up against “Top Gun.” Released by 20th Century Studios and Disney, the animated pic earned $12.6 million from 3,425 locations. It opened in third place, behind “Doctor Strange 2,” which earned $16.4 million in its fourth weekend in theaters.

“Top Gun” will continue to essentially have the skies to itself until “Jurassic World: Dominion” opens June 10.

“It has a really nice, open marketplace to play,” Dergarabedian said. “Tom Cruise has always been about consistency. His movies are about the marathon. This is the first movie of his that is sprinting to big box office numbers. Here, he gets the sprint and the marathon.”

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore. Final domestic figures will be released Tuesday.

1. “Top Gun: Maverick,” $124 million.

2. “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” $16.4 million.

3. “The Bob’s Burgers Movie,” $12.6 million.

4. “Downton Abbey: A New Era,” $5.9 million.

5. “The Bad Guys,” $4.6 million.

6. “Sonic the Hedgehog 2,” $2.5 million.

7. “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” $2.5 million.

8. “The Lost City,” $1.8 million.

9. “Men,” $1.2 million.

10. “F3: Fun and Frustration,” $1 million.

Source: Voice of America

DEA Outlines Expansionary Plan as It Prepares to Enter Global Markets

Platform Unveils Three-Pronged Business Development Strategy To Local Media

PlayMining

PlayMining

SINGAPORE, May 27, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In preparation for its full-scale launch in Japan, GameFi platform Digital Asset Entertainment Pte. Ltd. (DEA) has revealed its business development plans to local Japanese media.

Flanked by Japanese lawmaker (former Minister of Justice) Takashi Yamashita and non-profit organization “Kosotsu Shien Kai” Chairman Satoshi Takemura, the DEA team highlighted the underlining strategy for penetrating the Japanese market. DEA’s Head of Business Strategy, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, charted a three-pronged approach that revolves around DEA’s issuance of the PlayMining ecosystem’s native DEAPcoin ($DEP) token, opening and operating an NFT marketplace responsible for handling NFT sales, and the introduction of NFT-based games.

Already, DEAPcoin is available for trading in Japan through its listing on the BITPOINT exchange and will play an important role in expanding the awareness of the PlayMining economic zone’s potential amongst local users. Additionally, the PlayMining NFT marketplace has forged partnerships with popular manga artists, lining up Ami Shibata and Ume. This follows the inclusion of Kamui Fujiwara in the PlayMining Verse, the ecosystem’s Metaverse, which supports user content creation and development.

Together, these activities will work in conjunction to support the four play-to-earn NFT gaming titles;  “JobTribes,” which is currently available, “Cookin’ Burger,” “Graffiti Racer,” and “Menya Dragon Ramen“, which are scheduled to launch in the third quarter of 2022. Simultaneously, PlayMining is enlarging its appeal as the first Web3 GameFi platform in Japan.

Besides the business development plans, DEA has partnered with the non-profit organization “Kosotsu Shien Kai” to help support income-generation opportunities for individuals without high-school degrees. Moreover, the project has found support from House of Representatives Member Takashi Yamashita, who views PlayMining as dovetailing Japan’s growth strategy and Web3 ambitions.

Commenting on DEA’s plans for Japan, CEO Kozo Yamada notes, “Japan represents an incredible opportunity for GameFi, and especially PlayMining, when putting the sheer size of the market and its tech-savvy population in context. As we endeavor to make a big splash in the market, we are proud to have the support of the Liberal Democratic Party and local organizations like “Kosotsu Shien Kai” that believe in the immense potential of Web3 ecosystems.”

About DEA
Conceived in 2018, Digital Entertainment Asset (DEA) Pte Ltd. is behind the PlayMining GameFi platform that delivers digital entertainment through multiple avenues. Through its embedded play-to-earn digital economy, creators and gamers can connect directly via the PlayMining economic zone to earn while playing NFT-based games. With the platform’s native $DEP utility token, PlayMining users gain access to blockchain games, and the ability to purchase NFT at the NFT marketplace “PlayMining NFT“.

Co-CEO: Naohito Yoshida, Kozo Yamada
Location: 7 Straits View, Marina One East Tower,#05-01, Singapore 018936
Establishment: August 2018
Business description: GameFi platform business

Contact Information
Digital Entertainment Asset Pte Ltd
Public Relation: Takasugi |tomoyuki_takasugi@dea.sg / Soeda|soeda@dea.sg

Related Images

Image 1: PlayMining

From left: Kozo Yamada (Founder & Co-CEO), Takashi Yamashita (Member of the House of Representatives)

This content was issued through the press release distribution service at Newswire.com.

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Lights On! Vivid Sydney’s Dazzling Return to Harbour City

Sydney has exploded into a kaleidoscope of colour and technicolour brilliance tonight as the lights were turned on for Vivid Sydney 2022

Sydney Opera House – Yarrkalpa Hunting Ground 2021

Sydney Opera House – Yarrkalpa Hunting Ground 2021

SYDNEY, May 27, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Making a triumphant return after a two-year hiatus, Australia’s largest event will bring together light artists, music makers and brilliant creatives over 23 days and nights, from 27 May to 18 June in celebration of Sydney’s soul – the diversity, beauty, resilience, First Nations culture, and vibrant creative community.

For the first time in Vivid Sydney’s 12-year history, the ‘Lights On’ moment has been preceded with First Light, a powerful acknowledgement and celebration of our First Nations culture, with a spectacular and memorable Welcome to Country ceremony and performance by more than 50 NAISDA dancers, choreographed by Deon Hastie under creative advisor Rhoda Roberts AO.

From firelight to spotlights, the ‘Lights On’ moment wowed with the Sydney Opera House Lighting of the Sails featuring the incredible new digital artwork, Yarrkalpa – Hunting Ground 2021. Created by Martu artists and creative technologists Curiious, with a soundtrack by Electric Fields & Martu artists, the visually striking and complex painting depicts the Parnngurr community and surrounding landscape and represents Indigenous cultures’ intimate connection with the country. The Lighting of the Sails is complemented with Sharing the Same Life Essence by Indigenous artist Wayne Quilliam, projected onto all four of the Sydney Harbour Bridge pylons during First Light.

This year, the Festival is bigger and brighter than ever before, with 11 central business district (CBD) locations across Sydney, including Circular Quay, Sydney CBD, The Rocks, Barangaroo, Darling Harbour, Darling Square, Central Station, The Good Line, Luna Park and Taronga Zoo transformed with illuminating installations and unforgettable performances. This year is the first time that Central Station and the Goods Line has been activated, extending the Light Walk for a continuous 8km.

Minister for Enterprise, Investment and Trade, Minister for Tourism and Sport and Minister for Western Sydney Stuart Ayres said Vivid Sydney was much more than just a captivating light, music and ideas festival.

“Vivid Sydney draws millions of visitors to the city in May and June and is such an important driver for the NSW tourism economy,” Mr Ayres said.

“It’s been a long wait since the lights went out on Vivid Sydney 2019 and this year’s program is bigger, brighter and bolder, with over 200 events for visitors to enjoy. The largest festival in the Southern Hemisphere brings Sydney to life, and I encourage Sydneysiders and visitors from all around the country and the world to visit our dynamic city when it’s at its creative best.”

Festival Director, Gill Minervini said: “It has been such a privilege and honour to put together a program of this scale that is two years in the making. This year’s program features a completely refreshed and revitalised program celebrating Sydney’s soul, elevating our artists and creatives onto a world stage that will inspire and captivate audiences. Over the next 23 days and nights, visitors will be spoiled for choice, with the longest ever continuous Light Walk at 8km, hundreds of music events at intriguing locations across the city and thought-provoking talks from the world’s most brilliant minds. Sydney shines during Vivid Sydney, and I cannot wait for everyone to experience it.”

Vivid Sydney is the largest festival of light, music and ideas in the Southern Hemisphere and the largest event in Australia.

For more information and to purchase tickets to Vivid Sydney events, go to www.vividsydney.com.

Follow Vivid Sydney on social media for the latest Vivid Sydney updates and last-minute advice on getting around the city:

facebook.com/vividsydney

twitter.com/vividsydney

instagram.com/vividsydney

youtube.com/vividsydney

Get social at Vivid Sydney using @vividsydney #vividsydney.

MEDIA CONTACT

Wayne Mitcham, Āmio Limited

P: +64 21 499 550

E: wayne@amio.nz

About Vivid Sydney

Vivid Sydney is an annual celebration of creativity, innovation and technology, which transforms Sydney for 23 days and nights. Staged for its 12th year in 2022, Vivid Sydney fuses mesmerising art displays and 3D light projections with exhilarating live music performances and deep-dive discussions from some of the world’s brightest minds, as well as the Sydney Opera House Lighting of the Sails. Vivid Sydney is owned, managed and produced by Destination NSW, the NSW Government’s tourism and major events agency.

Related Images

Image 1: Sydney Opera House – Yarrkalpa Hunting Ground 2021

Artists – Martu artists Photo credit – Destination NSW

Image 2: Checkmate – Darling Harbour

Artists – Amigo and Amigo Credit – Destination NSW

Image 3: For Sydney With Love

Artist – Ken Done Credit – Destination NSW

Image 4: Temple

Artists – Leila Jeffreys & Melvin J Montalban Credit – Destination NSW

Image 5: Macula

Artists – Justin Reinhold & Rico Reinhold Credit – Destination NSW

Image 6: Vivid Reflections

Artists – The Electric Canvas Art Collective Credit – Destination NSW

This content was issued through the press release distribution service at Newswire.com.

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Pandemic Has Lingering Toll on Smaller National Spelling Bee

Dev Shah’s dream of returning to the Scripps National Spelling Bee ended in a soccer stadium, of all places.

On a cool, windy February day with occasional rain showers, Dev spent five miserable hours spelling outdoors at Exploria Stadium, the home of Major League Soccer’s Orlando City club, ultimately finishing fourth in a regional bee that he was forced to compete in for the first time.

“My regional was hard enough to win when it wasn’t encompassing Orlando,” said Dev, a 13-year-old seventh grader. “The fact that it’s basically representing a third of Florida, that was stressful, and I started studying extra, but it didn’t work out in the end, unfortunately.”

While the National Spelling Bee is back — fully in person at its usual venue outside Washington for the first time since 2019 — Dev’s experiences illustrate how the pandemic continues to affect kids who’ve spent years preparing to compete for spelling’s top prize. Schools and sponsors have dropped out of the bee pipeline, regions have been consolidated and the bee has fewer than half the spellers it had three years ago.

“There is a sense that COVID marks a significant break between the bee that used to be and the spelling bee that is now,” said Grace Walters, a former speller who coached the 2018 champion and three of the eight 2019 co-champs. “And I don’t know if that’s a bad thing or not, but I’m trying to keep a positive attitude about it.”

Another huge change: Cincinnati-based Scripps broke with longtime partner ESPN and will broadcast the competition on its own networks, ION and Bounce. Actor and literacy advocate LeVar Burton was hired as host and will interview spellers and their families backstage, and last year’s champion, Zaila Avant-garde, will be part of the broadcast as an analyst.

Scripps had 245 regional sponsors in 2020 for the bee that was ultimately canceled because of the pandemic. That number is down to 198 for this year’s bee, which runs from Tuesday to Thursday.

“Many of our sponsors who are still with us, even, have expressed the concerns and the challenges brought forth by the pandemic,” said J. Michael Durnil, the bee’s executive director. “Some of our sponsors realigned what their missions were and maybe the bee didn’t fit. Maybe they lost person[al] power and had to rethink their core business and the bee was not part of it. There’s been a great reset in a lot of areas.”

Newspapers historically sponsored most regional bees, but as the print media business cratered, the sponsors became a hodgepodge of companies, nonprofits and government entities. Polk County Tourism and Sports Marketing, which sponsored the regional bee that Dev won in 2020 and ’21, was among those that dropped out. That forced Dev to travel two hours from his home in Seminole, Florida, to Orlando, where the open-air competition dragged on as judges shivered.

“They even switched to vocabulary for like 20 minutes and they realized that we kept getting them right, so they switched back to spelling,” he said. “You know, you start losing your concentration after like five hours. You start losing your stamina.”

Pro sports franchises have filled the sponsor void. The NFL’s Carolina Panthers hosts a massive regional bee that sends four spellers from North Carolina and two from South Carolina. The Tennessee Titans do the same for most of their state. And Scripps ran five of its own regional bees for children who lived in places with no sponsor.

Scripps is encouraging sponsors of larger regions to send multiple children to the bee. The price tag for sponsoring one speller is $3,900. For two, it’s $7,500, and for three, it’s $10,000.

The drop in sponsors isn’t the main reason the bee is smaller this year. The 2018 and 2019 bees had a wild-card program designed as an alternative pathway to the bee for spellers in tough regions. Karthik Nemmani, a student of Walters’ and a wild card from the talent-rich Dallas area, won the bee in the program’s first year.

But in 2019, more than half the 562 bee spellers were wild cards, many of them younger children who weren’t competitive at the national level. Scripps had planned to scale back the program in 2020. Then the bee’s longtime executive director departed and her replacement, Durnil, scrapped the wild cards altogether.

“It got dinged as a pay-for-play kind of opportunity, which is at odds with the mission and the heart of the bee, quite frankly,” Durnil said.

That leaves this year’s bee with 234 spellers, all of whom qualified on merit. There are plenty of familiar faces. Akash Vukoti, a 13-year-old from San Angelo, Texas, who initially qualified as a first grader, is competing for the fifth time. Fourteen-year-old Maya Jadhav of Fitchburg, Wisconsin, and 14-year-old Harini Logan of San Antonio, Texas, are each making their fourth appearances.

Spellers age out of the competition when they reach ninth grade, meaning those who qualified as sixth graders in 2019 never got to experience another “Bee Week.” Only the top 11 spellers competed in person last year in a mostly empty arena at Walt Disney World.

“It’s a privilege, I think, for all the eighth graders in the 2022 bee to get to have that opportunity that the last two years, we didn’t have,” Harini said. “Getting to experience that as our finale, we’re very, very fortunate for that.”

Source: Voice of America

Weather’s Unwanted Guest: Nasty La Nina Keeps Popping up

Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the U.S. Western states megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.

“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.

An Associated Press statistical analysis of winter La Ninas show that they used to happen about 28% of the time from 1950 to 1999, but in the past 25 winters, they’ve been brewing nearly half the time. There’s a small chance that this effect could be random, but if the La Nina sticks around this winter, as forecast, that would push the trend over the statistically significant line, which is key in science, said L’Heureux. Her own analysis shows that La Nina-like conditions are occurring more often in the last 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.

What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.

What Seager and other scientists said is happening is that the eastern equatorial Atlantic is not warming as fast as the western equatorial Atlantic or even the rest of the world with climate change. And it’s not the amount of warming that matters but the difference between the west and east. The more the difference, the more likely a La Nina, the less the difference, the more likely an El Nino. Scientists speculate it could be related to another natural cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or it could be caused by human-caused climate change or both.

“At this point we just don’t know,” L’Heureux said. “Scientists are watching and I know, are actively studying. But it’s really important because of regional conditions. We need to get this right.”

La Nina is a natural and cyclical cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide, as opposed to El Nino’s warming. Often leading to more Atlantic hurricanes, less rain and more wildfires in the West and agricultural losses in the middle of the country, studies have shown La Nina is more expensive to the United States than the El Nino. Together El Nino, La Nina and the neutral condition are called ENSO, which stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation, and they have one of the largest natural effects on climate, at times augmenting and other times dampening the big effects of human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists said.

“They really have a very, very strong” effect, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting. “So a third consecutive La Nina is not at all a welcome thing.”

He said the dangerous heat in India and Pakistan this month and in April is connected to La Nina.

The current La Nina formed in the late summer of 2020 when the Atlantic set a record for the number of named storms. It strengthened in the winter when the U.S. western states drought worsened and in the early summer of 2021 it weakened enough that NOAA said conditions were neutral. But that pause only lasted a few months and by early fall 2021 La Nina was back, making it a double dip.

Normally second years of La Nina tend to be weaker, but in April this La Nina surprised meteorologists by setting a record for intensity in April, which is based on sea surface temperatures, Ehsan said.

“These are very impressive values for April,” L’Heureux said. Still, because La Ninas historically weaken over summer and there are slight signs that this one may be easing a bit, there’s the small but increasing chance that this La Nina could warm just enough to be considered neutral in late summer.

La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that’s when it is a problem for the West because it’s the rainy season that is supposed to recharge area reservoirs. But the western states are in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency.

Three factors — ENSO, climate change and randomness — are biggest when it comes to the drought, which is itself a huge trigger for massive wildfires, said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. Without climate change, La Nina and bad luck could have made the drought the worst in 300 years but with climate change it’s the worst in at least 1,200 years, said UCLA climate hydrologist Park Williams.

La Nina “is a pretty important player; it may be the dominant player,” said Swain, who has a blog on western weather. “It could be responsible for one-third, maybe one-half of the given conditions if it is pronounced enough.”

“It’s much less likely that the Southwest (U.S.) will see at least even a partial recovery from the megadrought during La Nina,” Swain said.

La Nina “amps up your Atlantic storms” but decreases them in the Pacific, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

It’s all about winds 10 to 12 kilometers above the water surface. One of the key factors in storm development is whether there is wind shear, which are changes in wind from high to low elevations. Wind shear can decapitate or tip over hurricanes, making them hard to strengthen and at times even stick around. Wind shear can also let dry air into hurricanes that chokes them.

When there’s an El Nino, there’s lots of Atlantic wind shear and it’s hard for hurricanes to get going. But La Nina means little wind shear in the Atlantic, making it easier for storms to intensify and do it quickly, said University of Albany hurricane researcher Kristen Corbosiero.

“That’s a really huge factor,” Corbosiero said.

“Whatever is the cause, the increasing incidence of La Ninas may be behind the increasing hurricanes,” MIT’s Emanuel said.

Some areas like eastern Australia and the arid Sahel region of Africa do better with more rain during La Nina. India and Pakistan, even though they get extra spring heat, also receive more needed rain in La Ninas, Columbia’s Ehsan said.

A 1999 economic study found that drought from La Nina cost United States agriculture between $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion, which is far more than the $1.5 billion cost of El Nino. A neutral ENSO is best for agriculture.

Columbia’s Seager said even though there may be some chance and some natural cycles behind the changes in La Nina, because there’s likely a climate change factor he thinks there will probably be more of them.

Source: Voice of America