Manila: Inflation will continue to settle within the lower end of the government’s target despite the projected acceleration in September, an economist said. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort indicated that inflation likely reached 2.1 percent in September, up from 1.5 percent in August this year.
According to Philippines News Agency, the forecast remains within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s target range of 2 to 4 percent. Ricafort noted that volatility in global crude oil prices, influenced by increased tensions in the Middle East and other geopolitical uncertainties, along with storm damage, could cause a temporary rise in food prices.
The economist further explained that the government’s ban on rice imports from September to October 2025 aims to protect local farmers’ incomes during the seasonal increase in local palay (unhusked rice) harvests. “However, this could lead to some upward correction in local rice prices,” Ricafort said.
He also mentioned the recent PHP50 increase in the minimum wage in Metro Manila and other regions, which could result in a slight rise in the prices of affected goods and services in the coming months. Despite these potential increases, Ricafort emphasized that inflation would remain within the BSP’s target.
“Inflation could remain relatively benign and still below the BSP’s inflation target of 2%-4%, largely due to still relatively lower rice prices, which account for 9% of the CPI (consumer price index) basket due to lower tariffs on imported rice to 15% from 35 or an outright discount of 20% and also due to lower world rice prices recently,” he explained.
Ricafort added that world rice prices have declined to new 5-year lows, or since August 2020, in recent months, dropping from 15-year highs experienced between July 2023 and July 2024, following the end of the El Ni±o drought in June 2024.